It has made this audacious forecast three times now.
It did, however, note that in order to improve its chances of winning, the government would increase spending in the run-up to the general election in December 2024.
“We expect the government to boost expenditure leading up to the December 2024 general election to enhance its chances of securing victory. We remain of the view that the opposition National Democratic Congress will win the election”, it disclosed in its latest Country Report on Ghana dated September 19, 2024.
“Indeed, in Q2 [quarter 2, 2024], the government raised public sector wages by 31.0% year-on-year in nominal terms and tripled subsidies on petrol products, a move that aligns with Ghana’s historical trend of higher spending during election cycles. This will boost household purchasing power and support consumer spending over second-half of 2024”.
“All told, we forecast that private consumption will grow by 8.5% in 2024 and add 7.2pp to headline economic growth”, it noted.
Risks To Outlook
It continued that the risks to Ghana’s economic growth outlook are tilted to the downside.
“In September 2024, the opposition National Democratic Congress staged nationwide protests alleging irregularities in the voter roll ahead of the December election. While our core view remains that the vote will be conducted peacefully, consistent with Ghana’s recent democratic history, prolonged protests or the outbreak of large-scale violence would disrupt commercial activities and reduce consumer and business confidence, ultimately leading to lower economic growth than we currently forecast”.
It also stated that an intensification of the Middle East crisis, which would raise oil prices globally, would lead to a spike in inflation and cast doubt on Ghana’s prospects for domestic demand.
